Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.008037 0.009063 0.010172 0.011460 0.012916 0.014510 0.016391
2026-01-04 0.006476 0.007901 0.009568 0.011665 0.014234 0.017285 0.021189
2026-01-11 0.005635 0.007260 0.009268 0.011936 0.015395 0.019740 0.025629
2026-01-18 0.004904 0.006603 0.008799 0.011850 0.015994 0.021444 0.029186
2026-01-25 0.004371 0.006115 0.008456 0.011840 0.016622 0.023169 0.032860
2026-02-01 0.003886 0.005623 0.008037 0.011649 0.016940 0.024447 0.035975
2026-02-08 0.003561 0.005315 0.007831 0.011716 0.017599 0.026224 0.039927
2026-02-15 0.003241 0.004979 0.007543 0.011620 0.017984 0.027602 0.043371
2026-02-22 0.003052 0.004816 0.007491 0.011865 0.018889 0.029817 0.048275
2026-03-01 0.002744 0.004438 0.007071 0.011489 0.018775 0.030415 0.050627
2026-03-08 0.002507 0.004151 0.006769 0.011269 0.018879 0.031350 0.053583
2026-03-15 0.002282 0.003864 0.006439 0.010969 0.018816 0.031987 0.056065
2026-03-22 0.002203 0.003817 0.006506 0.011350 0.019952 0.034756 0.062531
2026-03-29 0.002099 0.003717 0.006476 0.011561 0.020808 0.037114 0.068487
2026-04-05 0.002013 0.003643 0.006480 0.011829 0.021783 0.039749 0.075173
2026-04-12 0.001881 0.003472 0.006300 0.011745 0.022101 0.041211 0.079773
2026-04-19 0.001771 0.003334 0.006168 0.011734 0.022550 0.042943 0.085030
2026-04-26 0.001647 0.003159 0.005951 0.011545 0.022637 0.043988 0.089014
2026-05-03 0.001567 0.003060 0.005872 0.011612 0.023226 0.046042 0.095199
2026-05-10 0.001473 0.002928 0.005717 0.011517 0.023480 0.047448 0.100162
2026-05-17 0.001426 0.002885 0.005730 0.011759 0.024438 0.050342 0.108504
2026-05-24 0.001314 0.002702 0.005455 0.011387 0.024088 0.050513 0.110994
2026-05-31 0.001228 0.002565 0.005261 0.011169 0.024043 0.051314 0.114923